Special to The Globe and Mail

Near my home in downtown Calgary, a century-old schoolhouse reminds us how societal concepts around gender have changed. Two entrances on the same side of the building, one for boys and one for girls, are marked in sandstone. They weren’t kidding. In 1912, it was improper for school-aged boys and girls to use the same door.

By today’s standards, this seems comically outdated. And in the 21st century, there are new societal trends and concepts around gender – and where things go from here will have economic and financial impacts on those old 20th-century business models.

For example, transgender Canadians are finding a voice and seeking what millions of other marginalized groups have demanded (and generally won): recognition. And it’s not just transgender people; it’s asexual, two-spirited, bisexual, gay and lesbian Canadians. Slotting people into boxes – one labelled “boy” and one labelled “girl” – is becoming an anachronism. People are diverse in their gender identity. They will no longer tick one box or the other.

Reasonable people can disagree whether this trend is positive or not, but I’d like to suggest that it is inevitable. The age of differentiating individuals into two rigid gender categories will soon be gone. Therefore, it makes sense to consider what this brave new world of gender ambiguity might mean for businesses and the economy.

Consider building codes. Currently, most provincial standards require separate washrooms for men and women, and access for the physically challenged. (And readers who know where I’m going with this should remember that, decades ago, it was unthinkable that private businesses would be required by law to construct washrooms capable of accommodating a wheelchair).

Building codes in the future will almost certainly require entirely gender-neutral washrooms. The idea of one washroom for men and one for women will seem as laughably archaic as separate school-entrances for boys and girls. And stand-alone, gender-neutral washrooms are more expensive to build. They require much more space, more plumbing and more HVAC per user than traditional washrooms.

Or think of the insurance industry. Actuarial tables for everything from life expectancy to statistical probabilities for diseases or accidents often depend on the gender of the client. But what if it becomes impossible to ascertain gender? What happens to actuarial science when a key variable cannot be determined? How will it change the industry? Premiums? And payouts?

The airline industry is another mystery. I’ve never been given a good explanation why, when booking a flight online, you must click “male” or “female.” Perhaps there is a good reason, but what happens when the courts rule that this question is no longer appropriate? Will that change anything for airline safety? Or is the entire question only for marketing purposes – and, if that’s the case, how will airlines adjust to not knowing how to target their customers?

Then there are more trivial situations arising at dry cleaners and hair salons. Why does cleaning a men’s cotton dress shirt cost less than a women’s cotton blouse? (A female friend of mine takes her dress shirts to the cleaners, but tells them that they are her fathers – and pays the lower men’s price). Will this silly gender differentiation end? And if it does, will men end up having to pay more? Or will women pay less? How does the business model change?

All sorts of industries make decisions or ask questions based on clients’ DNA. If their chromosomes are XY, there is one price or policy, and if they’re XX, there is another. Whether there are legitimate health or safety reasons for this, our society is rapidly moving toward a place where it will be impossible (or illegal) to ask.
I’m not trying to stir the pot asking whether there are two, or six, or a thousand gender identities. Rather, I’m pointing out that this is reality – and there are economic and business-model implications. The sooner industries can anticipate what gender ambiguity means for them, the better equipped they’ll be able to manage it.
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Todd Hirsch is the Calgary-based chief economist of ATB Financial and author of The Boiling Frog Dilemma: Saving Canada from Economic Decline.

To say Alberta’s economy was interesting last year isn’t quite right. Terrifying is a better descriptor for some. For others, it’s been that eerie sense of déjà vu. But as the Vegas bookies know, terror and repetition are all part of the thrill of gambling.

How is 2016 shaping up for Canada’s beleaguered energy juggernaut? What does it mean for those anxious Albertans watching the roulette wheel spin? Here are some events worth watching this year, and the odds against them.

Oil hitting $100 (U.S.) a barrel: odds, 100 to 1

It’s improbable, but there is a story line that would see oil prices rocket their way back to triple digits. It involves such terrible violence and terror in the Middle East, however, that it’s unseemly to describe it. It would also take a surge in growth from China, India and other emerging economies, as well as social and infrastructure collapse in Venezuela and Nigeria – two Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that are straining under the cartel’s supply policy and low price.

Oil hitting $20 a barrel: odds, 20 to 1

This too is possible, and in fact the chances of it happening are better than most Albertans would care to dwell on. This scenario would require a near collapse of China’s economy. At this point, that isn’t very likely, but Shanghai’s stock market showed frightening volatility last summer and the government devalued its currency in a surprise move to stabilize the economy. Anything is possible this year in China.

Unemployment hitting 10 per cent: odds, 15 to 1

It’s been over 22 years since Alberta has seen double-digit unemployment. Going into 2016, the province’s jobless rate sits at 7 per cent. Job losses have been concentrated in the oil patch and those industries indirectly related (such as engineering and service providers to oil producers). But other sectors of the economy are still doing well, and they’ll find some nice juicy résumés coming through the door. That should keep unemployment from skyrocketing to double-digits.

Alberta, a leader in renewable energy: odds, 4 to 1

This isn’t as improbable as some Alberta-bashers out there wish it to be. There’s more to Wild Rose Country than oil, and 2016 could present the proper conditions to see some of that diversity flourish. Alberta is already a leader in wind power, and great potential lies with solar and geothermal. The problem with a lot of it is that when oil prices are strong, the petroleum sector draws in a lot of labour, capital and even office space. That’s now reversing. As well, the provincial government is looking for ways to both diversify the economy and encourage renewable energy.

Out-migration from Alberta: odds, 2 to 1

This is a familiar trend in Alberta when the economy periodically hits the skids. It’s also one of the best reasons for being part of a national economy that allows labour mobility. Interprovincial in-migration over the past five years was essential for employers in Alberta that were looking for workers. Now that the tides have turned, there’s a good chance some will leave. Preventing a massive outflow, however, is the fact that the job market isn’t much better elsewhere in the country (British Columbia being the one exception).

Economic contraction: odds, 1 to 1

Downturns like last year’s aren’t uncommon in Alberta, and in fact the last recession in 2009 was much deeper (albeit short-lived). This time around, the contraction is likely to linger on for a while, with both 2015 and 2016 forecast to see some drop in the real gross domestic product. At this point, growth should be so close to zero that it’s a flip of the coin whether the province will see another year of sliding backward.

And then, for the real gamblers, there are the black swan events:
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After a nice lunch with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, President Barack Obama has a change of heart on Keystone XL: odds, 10,000 to 1.
A meteor of pure gold hits Alberta, bringing $10-billion (Canadian) in royalties to the province: odds, 100,000 to 1.
A sales tax: odds, 1,000,000 to 1.

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Todd Hirsch is the Calgary-based chief economist of ATB Financial and author of The Boiling Frog Dilemma: Saving Canada from Economic Decline.