Three reasons to be excited about the post-COVID economy

It’s hard to be an optimist these days. The health pandemic is taking lives and the economic crisis is closing businesses. Not much to cheer about here. In fact, it seems rude to be upbeat.

Yet in spite of these hardships, here are three reasons to be excited about a post-COVID world.

1. The pandemic will accelerate the fourth industrial revolution. After the mechanical revolution (1800s), the electrical revolution (early 1900s), and the digital revolution (1960s), the fourth revolution to transform our economy is the cyber revolution — a world of artificial intelligence, machine learning, blockchain technology and virtual reality. This current revolution has been around for a few years, but it hasn’t yet been truly transformational. The pandemic will make the practical applications of these technologies more obvious. Travellers may be less likely to pack into airplanes and pile into the all-you-can-eat vacation destinations, but they may be more willing to try virtual reality experiences. Physically distancing may become more normal, but A.I. and blockchain technologies can create whole new ways of communicating that we’ve been slow to embrace. The post-COVID world will give us the nudge in the right direction, and that will boost productivity.
2. The pandemic will reinvigorate the importance of community. In the early days of the crisis, many of us have likely had a chance to re-examine what, and who, is important. We haven’t been able to physically embrace those we love and cherish, but we’ve been awakened to their presence in our lives. In his 2019 book “The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind,” economist Raghuram Rajan discusses how society requires a balance between capitalism, government and community. If any one of them becomes too strong (or too weak) relative to the others, things get out of balance. Problems such as falling productivity, income inequality and the rise of populism start to emerge. Rajan’s book describes how community has been the weakest and neglected pillar in our modern Western economies. The pandemic will awaken us to the importance of community, which (if we pay attention to it) will create a healthier balance between it, our market economy, and our governments.
   
3. The pandemic will stimulate creativity and innovation. These elements have long been recognized as economically significant, but they were easy to ignore when profit maximization and ROI were the only metrics that mattered. But for a multitude of sectors — from energy to tourism, and from global supply chains to arts and culture — everything has changed. Waiting for a return to normal is a terrible strategy because “normal” isn’t coming back. The COVID crisis is forcing a wholesale re-examination of how many businesses will operate in the future. That will require enormous doses of creative, innovative thinking. Business leaders who disregarded the value in creative thinking will be left behind. The pandemic will also stimulate innovations in how we work. During the pandemic, many office managers are discovering new ways work can be done remotely, challenging the notion that workers need to be in supervised cubicles to be productive. The old 9-to-5, Monday to Friday work week is now more solidly in the Museum of the 20th Century.

Make no mistake: the COVID crisis is tragic. The human and economic suffering will be the worst we’ve known in modern times. More losses are coming. There will be no V-shaped recovery. 

Still, if we allow ourselves a moment’s luxury to think positively, good things are on the horizon. A nudge to embrace productivity-enhancing cyber technologies, a chance to ignite the power of community, and a crash course in creativity and innovation — these are the positives that will pave the path to the future.